New US luxury store openings fell 46% year over year in the first half of 2026, to 123,334 square feet from 227,000 square feet a year earlier, as luxury brands opened fewer stores but continued to favour larger flagship locations, according to a new JLL report.
The decline follows a sharp rise in luxury retail leasing in 2025, when activity exceeded 510,000 square feet, compared with 475,210 square feet in 2023 and 407,396 square feet in 2024.
The report said the first-half slowdown reflects a shift in luxury retail from store-count expansion towards more selective investment. “Luxury retail values quality over quantity,” the report said, noting that brands are becoming more strategic about store openings.
The change is particularly visible in flagship sizes. Bain research cited by JLL shows that monobrand openings are running 15% to 20% below 2022 levels, while “average flagship size has grown more than 30%”. Deloitte’s Global Powers of Luxury Goods 2026 report found that 39.3% of luxury executives are planning to optimise their store networks, prioritising “a smaller number of higher-quality locations over raw door count”.
The data also shows a sharp difference between retail formats. Malls accounted for 51.6% of US luxury openings in the period tracked, compared with 46.3% for street retail and 2.1% for hospitality locations.
But street stores were substantially larger, averaging 5,850 square feet, compared with 3,144 square feet for mall stores and 2,637 square feet for hospitality locations.
The overall store-size distribution, however, remains weighted towards smaller units. Stores below 2,500 square feet accounted for 48.4% of all US openings, while 29.5% were between 2,500 and 5,000 square feet. Another 16.8% measured between 5,000 and 10,000 square feet, while only 5.3% exceeded 10,000 square feet.
Malls accounted for 61% of openings below 2,500 square feet, with jewellery and watch brands representing 43.5% of that smallest category.
At the market level, Miami’s Design District recorded eight openings, the highest number among US prime corridors. Madison Avenue led in total square footage, driven in large part by Dior’s 52,000-square-foot flagship. The Beverly Hills Triangle recorded three openings averaging about 19,700 square feet each.
Vancouver recorded 30 luxury openings, more than any other North American market in the JLL tracker. However, report described the figure as an “outlier”, with most of the openings concentrated in the Oakridge Park development, which launched more than 30 luxury and luxury-lite tenants simultaneously.
Luxury also accounted for 43% of new fashion store opening announcements in major Canadian markets during the first half of 2026, ahead of mid-market at 31%, premium at 13% and value at 12%.
The concentration of openings among larger luxury groups also varied considerably. Independent and family-controlled houses accounted for 46% of tracked openings across the US and Canada, with an average store size of about 3,200 square feet.
LVMH and Richemont together accounted for roughly 30% of openings, but LVMH stores averaged nearly 9,000 square feet, almost three times the average size of Richemont stores. Kering and Zegna each accounted for less than 5% of openings.
The shift towards fewer but larger stores comes as the luxury customer base contracts. Bain estimates the global luxury customer base fell from about 400 million buyers in 2022 to 330 million in 2025. At the same time, shoppers spending more than €20,000 a year accounted for 46% of luxury sales, up from 30% in 2019.
The data points to a luxury market increasingly focused on “better ones, in the right places”, rather than simply adding more doors.
Luxury in the GCC faces a new test for a different reason
The Iran-US war has disrupted what had been one of the world’s strongest luxury markets, temporarily closing stores, cutting mall traffic and weakening sales across parts of the Gulf, even as Dubai’s luxury ecosystem shows signs of resilience.
Before the conflict, the GCC was a standout performer in a slowing global luxury market. Chalhoub Group’s 2024 GCC luxury report put personal luxury sales in the Gulf at $12.8 billion in 2024, up 6% year on year, while the group forecast the market could reach $15 billion by 2027. A separate Bain luxury-market outlook identified the Middle East as one of the strongest-performing regions, supported by tourism, affluent consumers and resilient domestic demand.
That trajectory was abruptly interrupted when the US-Israel war with Iran began in late February. In March, Kering, owner of Gucci, Saint Laurent and Balenciaga, temporarily closed stores in the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar. Chalhoub Group also closed its Bahrain stores, while travel and retail operations across the region were disrupted.
Hermès subsequently confirmed the scale of the disruption. In its first-quarter results, the company said it had closed some stores at the beginning of March, mainly in Dubai and subsequently in Bahrain and Kuwait, because airports had closed and for security reasons. The company’s earnings-call transcript said store revenue could fall by 20–30% depending on the day and location.
The shock was most visible in Dubai, the region’s luxury hub. Reports in April said that luxury sales at the Mall of the Emirates fell 30–50% in March from a year earlier, while traffic at Dubai Mall, a major tourist destination, dropped by about 50%. Abu Dhabi was also affected, although less severely.
The disruption has not, however, turned into a wholesale retreat from the Gulf. By September, Dubai’s aviation infrastructure was showing signs of recovery, with passenger traffic at Dubai International reaching 6.3 million in July. Fashion is also continuing: the Arab Fashion Council has moved Dubai Fashion Week’s spring/summer 2027 edition to October 22–26, signalling an attempt to maintain the city’s position as a regional fashion hub. Vogue Business
Yet the conflict remains unresolved. Renewed attacks and disruption around Gulf shipping routes have pushed oil prices above $100 a barrel and created a more persistent climate of uncertainty.
For luxury, therefore, the GCC story has shifted from uninterrupted growth to resilience. The stores have largely reopened, but tourism, aviation, consumer confidence and regional security remain critical variables for a market whose rapid expansion was built partly on the Gulf’s reputation as a safe, globally connected luxury-shopping destination.
