Ad and PR agencies are suddenly finding themselves having to defend brand equity, product pricing and sales targets in a volatile environment with unpredictable outcomes.
By Hadi Khatib
As if US high tariffs were not enough to destabilize markets, coordinated deadly salvos falling from the skies over densely populated and thriving financial centers in the GCC not only destabilize stock markets and spike oil and gold prices but also risk making retail markets casualties. This is significant because the combined UAE and KSA FMCG markets have reached over $36 billion, according to NielsenIQ in 2026.
The relentless media focus on the conflict can also potentially undermine the very foundations upon which FMCG markets were built. March 2026 was marked by a wave of news cycles driven by real-time security developments and shifting economic narratives, threatening FMCG brand safety developed around dynamic, data-fed, AI-powered operations.
Ad and PR agencies are suddenly finding themselves having to defend brand equity, product pricing and sales targets in a volatile environment with unpredictable outcomes.
“In high-intensity cycles, brand safety isn’t only about avoiding harm; it’s about understanding how meaning shifts with context. We help clients pressure-test how a message could land next to breaking news, in a comment thread, or stripped of nuance in a screenshot. The focus is less ‘what should we say’ and more ‘what could this be interpreted as saying, in today’s environment?’ From there, they can make choices that feel intentional rather than reactive,” Amel Osman, Managing Director and Head of UAE, H/Advisors said. She added that in volatile periods, “the value isn’t predicting the news; it’s staying alert to the signals that affect stakeholder interpretation and decision confidence.”
According to Dr. Sarah Percy, Program Director, MSc Marketing at University of Birmingham, Dubai, early clues usually lie in search behavior, retailer feedback, social tone and basket patterns. “For FMCG brands, the advantage lies in acting on those signals early enough to refine communication messaging before it starts to lose relevance,” Dr. Percy said.
Risks abound. Take the recent closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has driven up logistics and production costs. According to eToro’s latest update, Brent crude surged by as much as 13 percent to around $82 per barrel, driven by fears of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly 20 percent of the world’s crude oil and LNG supply.
Brands pass that cost to the consumers, who might flag this as exploitation on the part of agencies and FMCGs.
“Our team tracks news cycles, social sentiment, and platform policies daily, enabling us to adapt narratives swiftly while safeguarding brand reputation and ensuring alignment with regional sensitivities,” Stephanie Farah, Founder/Managing Director at Empyre Communications, said.
Sonal Chiber, a global strategy consultant, said, “We monitor sentiment velocity, keyword spikes, policy announcements, media tone, supply disruptions, and influencer discourse. These indicators help us proactively adjust messaging, pause campaigns, or pivot narratives before reputational or commercial risks arise.”
Media’s digital twins. According to Publicis Groupe Middle East’s 2026 Digital Transformation Analysis, agencies have already transitioned to predictive PR models such as digital twins, typically used for manufacturing, but now adapted as virtual AI-driven models of a brand’s public persona.
These can predict the probability of a negative backlash exceeding a certain ‘fairness’ threshold, following which the system automatically triggers a brand switch to a more community-support-focused message instead of a celebratory one.
So, while we are in Ramadan, and a common sense ‘Joyful Ramadan’ ad appears next to an FMCG product, this could be perceived as untimely when contrasted with breaking news of an airstrike carrying property loss and human casualties.
“Sudden spikes in negative commentary, regulatory updates, or geopolitical developments often signal the need to recalibrate messaging to protect brand equity and maintain relevance,” Farah clarified.
According to Amazon Ads 2026 Trends, FMCG brands are using their «Creative Agent» AI to pivot entire campaign visuals and copy within minutes, allowing them to swap persuasive high-energy lifestyle imagery for more subdued, community-focused messaging, the moment a regional crisis takes hold or escalates. The industry refers to this as ‘agile brand readiness’.
Supply chain reactions. During turbulent times, agencies face the scenario of products becoming unavailable due to supply chain disruptions while ads are still running. According to a NielsenIQ 2026 Regional Perspectives report, agencies now sync directly with warehouse inventory levels. If stock drops below 15 percent, at most, in a specific high-risk area, ads are automatically paused to protect brand trust.
Dataiku’s 2026 ‘The rise of Agentic Retail’ research highlights that as consumers increasingly delegate their shopping to personal AI assistants or autonomous replenishment bots, criteria for winning a sale, especially during conflicts and security crises, shift from emotional persuasion to logistical reliability. AI shopping agents will then prioritize ‘supply certainty’ over ‘brand story’.
Sanitizing the message. In times of uncertainty, information travels faster than verification. “A message can be reshared without nuance, creating confusion inside the organization and pressure outside it,” Osman said.
For its part, GroupM (WPP Media) highlights that retail media in the MENA is perceived as a safer environment for FMCG ad budgets than social feeds when footage of geopolitical conflict is rampant, and thus is 50 percent more effective at driving immediate action compared to a social media filled with potentially distracting open news cycles. It said agencies are helping clients build direct-to-consumer (DTC) channels to gather first-party data instead of relying on third-party data that often reflects historical behaviors.
Managing risk. Ad and PR agencies in 2026 are acting as risk strategists. According to Deloitte’s 2026 Global Consumer Product Outlook, 23 percent of FMCGs have integrated AI to facilitate what is called ‘task accountability’ in pricing. So, if prices rise by 12 percent and reach the ‘Fairness Threshold’, the PR agency proactively communicates the why behind this price uptick rather than wait for a backlash.
“Geopolitical tension accelerates shifts toward contextual placements, owned channels, and first-party data strategies. Clients increasingly prioritize controllable environments such as CRM, RMNs, and direct platforms to reduce risk exposure while sustaining engagement and performance accountability,” Chiber added. Dr. Percy emphasized that periods of uncertainty often accelerate changes already underway. “Brands become more selective over when and where they show up, favoring environments they can control and measure more easily. First-party data becomes more valuable here, offering brands a clearer insight into intent and helping build trust.”
In an era of high-stakes volatility, brands are no longer just selling a lifestyle. A brand’s most valuable asset becomes less based on its creative narrative, and more on logistical truth. Those who integrate warehouse inventory, first-party data, and pricing provenance into their communication strategy will prevail.
(Read this article in the latest CPG issue of Communicate here)
