When silence is not about being lost for words or keeping secrets, as is the case when brands suddenly hush after hustling to get their communication out, it acts as a strategic tool for observation, self-control, and careful listening, enabling them to avoid unnecessary conflict.
In 2026, silence is an active, tactical decision. For brand CMOs operating in the GCC, particularly amid geopolitical volatility linked to the Iran crisis, the decision to pause social media activations has become a reputational risk calculation rather than a brand tone choice.
According to 2026 WARC data, escalating geopolitical tensions, especially those impacting oil markets, are expected to put up to $50–$93 billion in global ad growth at risk, should the Iran war tensions stretch on, forcing brands to reassess campaign timing, messaging, and visibility. Global ad growth was originally tracking higher this year, with forecasts to rise 10.4 percent to $1.32 trillion.
This has accelerated the emergence of what agencies now refer to as content governance frameworks encompassing brand safety filters, contextual targeting, and exclusion lists, as part of protocols during crisis response planning, that advocate campaign pause strategies, selecting when brand content should be paused, localized, or entirely withdrawn.
In the GCC, as globally, social media is a primary communication channel for brands, where governments and state-linked entities play a central role in shaping narratives. As public sentiment can shift rapidly with current security and geopolitical developments, CMOs must manage when to intentionally remain silent, not just what brands say.
GCC GLEs and SWFs
Brands need to tread carefully given that significant ownership, control, and say over corporates and business behavior are held by government-linked entities (GLEs) in the GCC, including state-owned enterprises. In addition, sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) that back mega-projects in tourism, hospitality, telecom, transport and finance, from NEOM to the expansion of Dubai’s D3 district, act as primary engines for ad spend. The tourism and travel sector alone accounts for nearly 11 percent of the GCC’s GDP.
Public sector and state-backed investments are primary drivers of non-oil GDP growth. According to a recent report from S&P Global, non-oil sectors now contribute approximately three-quarters of the UAE and Saudi Arabia’s growth. This is the arena where FMCG brands and retail market players dwell, creating a unique dynamic where a significant portion of advertising spend originates from state-run entities, making it paramount for brands to stay aligned with national priorities.
According to S&P Global, rated GCC companies’ CAPEX needs remain high in light of significant government spending plans. About 29 percent of this expenditure in 2026-2027 relates to investments in Saudi Arabia’s GREs and Vision 2030-related infrastructure spending, accounting for most of this amount.
Operating expenditures (OPEX) for brands, like ad spend, naturally follow.
Daniel Knapp, Chief Economist, IAB Europe, appears to concur, saying in mid-March 2026: “In the first year of the Ukraine war, we saw the market collapse by high double digits. But then a new normal emerged. In the second year of the war, ad spend started to climb again, particularly on performance channels. A state of war doesn’t suddenly stop the advertising machine or consumer markets.”
For CMOs, and during that critical time period, when clients are government-linked, the direct implications are that messaging must align with national tone, state narratives and public sentiment, while silence, which could be interpreted as a form of compliance, can still run the risk of being misinterpreted as misalignment with the aforementioned.
AI integration and real-time risks
The GCC’s public and private sectors have aggressively invested in AI and digital infrastructure.
By 2026, internet advertising, including social, search, and retail media, was estimated to account for over 74 percent of total regional spend, PwC reported in their Global Entertainment & Media Outlook 2022–2026.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE have initiated $100 billion AI programs, in addition to AI data center building programs. According to McKinsey & Co’s 2025/2026 report, the “Cost of Compute research projects that global data center CapEx will reach nearly $7 trillion by 2030.”
This is already reshaping how brands monitor and respond to market sentiment and demand.
“For CMOs in the GCC, the challenge is not to compete with AI on efficiency, but to shape the inputs that guide AI decisions. The implication is clear: you are no longer just influencing the consumer; you are influencing the algorithm through the consumer. This requires creating memory-rich, meaningful interactions that embed the brand into digital behavior, through experience, trust, and cultural relevance,” said Dr. Jamid Ul Islam, Associate Professor, School of Management, Canadian University Dubai.
“At the same time, brands must become machine-legible, ensuring that their values are clearly encoded in data signals that AI can interpret. The future of loyalty, therefore, lies at the intersection of affect and architecture, where emotional connection informs algorithmic selection.”
In times of crises, CMOs have to introduce ‘off and on’ switches to what is normally autonomous AI-driven decision-making. Controlling automated campaign messaging is necessary to allow brands to gauge AI-triggered sentiment algorithms and either pause, shut down, or suppress content during sensitive geopolitical situations that change and update every hour.
Silence vs revenues
On April 1, an oil tanker leased by QatarEnergy was struck by an Iranian cruise missile in Qatari waters, the country’s defense ministry said, as reported by Reuters.
Oil prices rose 7 percent on April 2, adding to gas price volatility that impacts consumer spending, creating inflationary pressures and reducing non-essential purchases. How brands respond to that is a delicate dance around the issue by cutting or reallocating ad budgets, or simply remaining silent.
“Even in a contained scenario, an oil shock of this nature acts like a tax on consumers – pushing up prices while eroding real spending power,” said James McDonald, director of data, intelligence and forecasting at WARC.
“In a more prolonged or severe disruption, we move into stagflation territory, where sectors like travel, automotive, food and consumer electronics take a direct hit from both rising costs and falling demand. The net effect is a meaningful squeeze on discretionary spend that puts up to $50 billion of anticipated ad market growth at risk this year, as brands pare back their media investment in a bid to preserve thinning margins.”
At the same time, Digiday, a prominent media company, noted in 2026 that advertising does not stop during conflict, but becomes more selective, cautious, and performance-driven, often migrating toward retail media networks (RMNs) and walled gardens that enforce stricter control over content placement.
Regardless, for CMOs to continue posting during crises risks appearing tone-deaf, while pausing content clearly risks losing visibility and engagement.
This is especially true in the luxury sector. Half of all luxury goods sales in the Middle East come from the UAE, and most of those transactions occur in Dubai, according to estimates from Morgan Stanley.
The war has, in fact, created a crisis for luxury brands in Dubai, according to the New York Times. It quoted a report from Bernstein Research that estimated luxury sales in the Middle East would halve in March 2026, because of a sharp drop in foreign visitors.
Given this climate, should CMOs prioritize long-term brand trust over short-term reach? Any misstep, such as releasing content that looks insensitive, may harm public order or dent state’s reputation. This could, at worst, impact multi-million-dollar contracts or, at the very least, result in fines and legal consequences. In this context, silence is often the safest legal position during uncertainty.
CMOs thus need complete oversight over pre-scheduled content and active monitoring of global campaigns that may need local overrides.
Ad Adjacency
Ad adjacency, or the placement of brand content alongside sensitive or distressing news, can significantly disrupt media communication environments. Brands risk being associated with war coverage, humanitarian crises or political controversies.
It is a cautionary practice that governments themselves implement.
Haram Kamran, Communications Lead at Research Society of International Law, said in a mid-March published article that public officials often engage in silence tactics.
“During COVID, some governments initially kept some information confidential as they tried to verify or prevent people from panic buying and social disorder. Policymakers justified prudent communication by saying that it was necessary to prevent a misinformation spiral, as crisis communication research showed that premature reporting of incomplete information often contributes more to trust deficits than reporting delays of verified information,” Kamran said.
For foreign companies operating in the GCC, the priority is not predicting geopolitical outcomes but building operational resilience. Companies that mitigate the risks of energy shocks and supply chain disruptions, and smartly maintain ad and communication continuity in one of the world’s most strategically important business hubs, stand a great chance of surviving this crisis.
Of course, given that it doesn’t stretch for months on end. The scripts have to then be rewritten.
